I’m not very book smart when it comes to economics. I believe I had one economics class back in the 60’s during my first attempt to finish college (it took a while) and I’ve read several books in the last few years. However, I’ve had a lifetime of observing “economics” from the standpoint of my interest in politics and observing how different administrations – from Eisenhower to now our so-called president Trump – have chosen to effect our economic “ship of state.” Certain things have appeared over and over that, in my view, provide a bit of insight for anyone who’s been paying attention. In fact, what I’ve observed over the years leads to frustration when I get into conversations with people who I believe are old enough to know better.
What I’m leading up to is my prediction the “you know what” is about to hit the “fan.” I’ll elaborate in a bit. But first, getting back to those I know who should “know better.” Let’s talk about the deficit. Now, I have to admit I didn’t pay much attention to the deficit until Richard Nixon was president. I still remember him “explaining” why it was good for the government to be borrowing money – he said it was like having a mortgage on your home. The federal government had so much “real estate” that, to him, it made no sense for the government not to borrow against that real estate. Many Libertarians still lament Nixon taking America off the “gold standard,” which I’m not capable of debating one way or the other. I just remember him doing it. However, what I’ve observed since then is when republicans (who are essentially the libertarians of yore) are in the “White House” the annual deficit goes WAY up, and when democrats are in the White House, the deficit goes down. The statistics are undeniable.
And, of course, if you know a republican they’ll claim exactly the opposite – they’ll blame, ALWAYS, the rising, out of control deficits on democrats in Congress or democratic presidents. Yet, just this year the CBO has again projected TRILLION plus deficits as far “as the eye can see.” President Obama brought the $1.5 TRILLION annual deficits he INHERITED from Bush/Cheney – who, by the way, themselves, had INHERITED a $250 BILLION annual SURPLUS from Clinton/Gore – just sayin…… and, of course, Dick Cheney, as he was manipulating the second tax cut of the Bush/Cheney regime, famously said, “Ronald Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.” So, Obama got the Bush/Cheney $1.5 TRILLION deficits down to about $400 BILLION – a reduction of about 70%. Then came Trump.
True to form, Trump and his republican sycophants, passed ANOTHER “tax cut for the wealthy” – kind of makes you wonder how many of these tax cuts do they need. This one was passed when the “wealthy” were “rolling in the dough” and when corporations had TRILLIONS “in the bank.” Kind of like throwing gas on a burning fire – but, more on that in a bit. Interesting, at least to me, is the FACT that all the republicans who were complaining about the deficits during the Obama administration (which Obama inherited from Bush/Cheney, as I pointed out) are not making even a “peep” about the FACT they’ve now reversed virtually ALL the gains made during the Obama/Biden years. Even republicans like Jeff Flake and Bob Corker – not even up for re-election – who claimed they wouldn’t vote for a budget that raised the deficit by “one penny” voted with Trump on the tax “scam.” Suddenly, as usual, “deficits don’t matter.” This has happened OVER and OVER again during my short (71 years) lifetime. When will “we the people” wake up?
This most recent tax “scam” (which is how I usually refer to it) was the most egregious of them all. When the economy is “booming,” from what I’ve learned, a tax cut is not only inappropriate, it can be downright destructive. What could be the result? Well, I’ve predicted it’s likely (I’m saying that so if I’m wrong anyone who chooses can point that out) – and, that’s a boost to INFLATION that will lead to a “downturn” of who knows what proportions. And, from my vantage point, the “deal-maker in chief” has no idea what he’s doing and I, for one, don’t trust republicans to know how to pull America out of another “Great Recession.” They, famously, didn’t help at all when President Obama was faced with the challenge of preventing the “Great Recession” of 2008 from turning into a DEPRESSION – which, to many, must be how they viewed it.
And, sadly, from my perspective, if the downturn I’m about to predict, actually happens, it’s likely going to be Trump’s “uneducated voters” – who he “loves” so dearly (they actually believe what he says to them is the truth – I could go on about that for “days”) – are going to be the ones hurt the worst when, and if, this actually happens. Many places in the so-called “rust belt” still have not fully recovered from the Bush/Cheney fiasco and, from what I can tell, they’ll be “in the line of fire” the next time the economy contracts.
So, what is my point? Well, lately the stock market – which, to me, sadly controls too much of America’s wealth – has been on kind of a roller coaster ride. Huge swings going up and down – lately more down than up. Well, the results of Trump’s tariffs are going to begin showing up on corporate balance sheets and, while I have long since decided against participating in the stock market, I can see a CRASH of some proportion coming. Again, I don’t trust republicans to know how to deal with an economy in recession, so it could be “the big one.” Let’s all hope not. But, it appears to me that something significant is “on the horizon.” From my experience the huge swings are a pre-cursor to a significant downturn. The combination of the tax “scam” and the tariffs could be a prime example of the devil’s bargain.
Am I predicting a recession on the horizon? Well, the answer is yes. Of course, it could take a while – but, again, if these huge swings in the market continue that would tell me “something’s up.” And, here’s the worst part of it all. If INFLATION is rearing its ugly head I don’t think dropping interest rates to funnel money into the economy is an acceptable solution. Trump is already complaining about the Fed raising interest rates. I can imagine what he’ll be saying if the economy tanks while inflation rises – that’s the “double edged sword” that will really cause Trump to have some bad “tweets” – as he’ll likely be grasping for (even more) straws. From my vantage point, that’s how Trump operates – “grasping for straws.”
This is exactly why the recent tax “scam” – essentially the result of “demands” from the republican “donor class” was such a bad idea. If the economy tanks and inflation expands, i believe the only way to deal with it responsibly would be a tax INCREASE – and, of course, if we get to that point, you and I both know who republicans would target – and, in case you don’t know, it won’t be corporations or the wealthy. With Trump at the “helm” this could get even uglier than it is. (Actually, they’ll likely never resort to a tax increase under any circumstance)
How ugly is it? Well, in the past few days some guy from Florida, an avid Trump supporter, has been mailing pipe bombs around the country to people like President Obama, President Clinton, CNN, and other democratic supporters Trump has singled out at his rallies. Fortunately, none of the bombs made their targets or exploded while a mail carrier was in possession of it – or one of the authorities once they were identified. Incredibly, the FBI found the perpetrator within a matter of a few short days demonstrating they really are a super effective investigative body. Can you see why Trump has been attacking them? If a person had something to hide, it appears having the FBI checking into it would make one very uncomfortable!
And, true to form, Trump was “tweeting” stupid stuff this morning, lamenting how this bomb situation has taken the focus of the news media off the upcoming election. This tells us a lot. For example, I’ve been pointing out since the campaign of 2016 how masterfully Trump is using the media to save himself advertising money and how he “plays” them like a “fiddle.” Well, why would anyone think he’d stop doing so as long as they’re not figuring it out and they keep broadcasting his “every word.” (Well, of course, not “every” word, but he definitely knows how to get them to broadcast the words he wants them to “report”) Even one of his supporters committing “home grown” terrorism isn’t enough to stop Trump’s insidious “tweeting.”
And, what about the rest of his administration? Well, allegedly, while the FBI was frantically trying to find the pipe bomber Kirstjen Nielsen, Trump’s Secretary of Homeland Security, was busy trying to push the narrative that a caravan of desperate Latino’s about 1000 miles south of our Southern border are an “imminent” threat to the security of the United States. Pushing the LIE that this group is full of MS 13 gang members, Middle Eastern terrorists, and who knows who else? Maybe some Mexican murderers and rapists – that’s an effective Trump LIE.
Trump was actually bemoaning that the pipe bomber was taking the voters’ focus off of all the recent LIES he’s been spewing at the rallies he’s attending daily – apparently, in lieu of doing his actual job. His hope is that the “media” will get their focus off the “MAGA bomber” “sooner rather than later” (my quotes) and back onto the MAGA BullS@#*ter in order for his propaganda campaign to be more effective. This is the very “media” Trump refers to as “the enemy of the people.” Oh, by the way, the “MAGA Bomber” made the identical reference about the “media!”
Can you imagine what Trump is thinking (if he’s capable of that) regarding the possibility voters might vote against him as the result of his divisive rhetoric becomes more apparent to any voters “sitting on the fence.” Trust me, he’ll be trying to find ways to get the “media’s attention” back onto his scandalous behavior as soon as possible – who knows to what extreme he’ll go in order to accomplish this – but, the bottom line is, as long as Trump is in the “White House” this recurring theme will continue to be a recurring theme.
Of course, then today some whack job – this one, another “white Nationalist” but, apparently one of the “Charlottesville ilk” who weren’t the “very fine people” – shot up a Jewish Synagogue in Pittsburgh killing 11 worshipers, wounding 4 police officers and a few others, all the while spewing out anti-Semitic slogans in the attack. The guy is part of the “alt-Right” movement which was/is the work of Steve Bannon and which looks at Trump as their “savior” – but, he, apparently, has been quoted as saying Trump doesn’t go “far enough.” (Whatever that might mean?) The bottom line is Trump is largely responsible for emboldening the neo-Nazi movement in America and it’s unlikely he’ll repent anytime soon. The right wing violence in America is likely to get much worse before it gets better.
Here’s what quite possibly is the worst part of all this in my view – and, I’ve pointed this out numerous times prior to this week’s right wing violence. (And, apparently, there’s much right wing violence that goes unreported by our “main stream” “liberal” media.) Trump has fully prepared these nut jobs for the possibility he’s going to be impeached. (It’s almost as if he knows something “we the people” don’t – if you know what I mean) The MAGA bomber had a cache of weapons (and, maybe more bombs) and the Pittsburgh MURDERER apparently had a stash of 21 weapons at his apartment.
I know there are right wing zealots all across America who are armed to the hilt and I’ve had people I know who are Trump supporters tell me “there’s going to be civil war” – in anticipation of Trump’s impeachment. (And, yes, I understand there very well could be “left wing zealots” out there as well, “armed and dangerous”) Just look at the thugs at right wing rallies and this shouldn’t surprise you. That being said, let’s hope enough democrats win on November 6th so that Trump will face accountability if Mueller’s report is as scathing as some (including myself) think it might be. Whatever happens after that will likely be ugly and dangerous – but, at some point, it’s going to have to happen. Period!
I’ve been pointing out since the origins of the “Tea Party” that “we the people” are in a WAR for the “heart and soul” of America. (In my mind, to be resolved at the voting booth) Well, it’s gotten to the critical stage and in a week and a half we’ll see if all the “progressives” complaining about Trump will actually go to the polls. That is the first step in stopping this disaster.
The next step? Well, DEMANDING democrats FIGHT for the principles that caused them to be the party of “we the people” from the days of FDR until the 1970’s would be a good start. As I’ve said many times, today’s version of the republican party needs to be voted into the history books – and, their place in the history books is NOT going to be one of prominence. Once that happens, if democrats don’t fight for their traditional values it won’t be long and the republicans will reappear just like the cockroach you don’t use strong enough “stuff” to make sure they don’t come back. Are democrats capable of doing this? Well, I believe there are some younger ones who are capable of being strong leaders. Let’s hope the “old guard” will step aside should the dems retake the Congress this year.
Final Thought: I was watching some Trump supporters being interviewed at a rally the other night right after the MAGA Bomber had been identified – along with his political dogma. I’m not sure how to describe what I saw and heard. One person after another showed an embarrassing – well, I hate to say this – but, the word coming to mind is “stupidity,” regarding the MAGA Bomber and Trump. Trump, himself, has claimed he “loves uneducated voters” – and, one by one the people at his rally showed why. These people were actually suggesting President Obama sent the bomb to himself (and, likewise with the other 13 bombs). The right wing brainwashing that’s been going on for years has been (and is) effective – based on what you hear from Trump’s supporters at these rallies. Trump’s audience came across to me as pathetic – I keep telling myself they must have been “programmed” for years to have such a disregard for – well, in this instance – common sense. It helped me to understand how they could force themselves to believe, for example, all 19 women claiming Trump sexually assaulted them were the LIARS. Incredibly, they believe the LIAR in chief is the “truth teller.” (Despite FACT checkers identifying OVER 8000 LIES since he took office. Yikes!!!
Bringing this nation “together” is going to be a monumental task and will require a leader of the “ages.” Let’s hope there’s a democrat who will emerge who’s got what it takes to overcome the right wing MACHINE (Koch brother, etc) that’s been robbing the people at that Trump rally “blind” for years, along with all of us who can’t stand Trump. It’s time “we the people” were educated as to what’s really been happening in America since Lewis Powell’s memo to the Chamber of Commerce back in 1972 started this move toward a corporatocracy. Read Hedrick Smith’s “Who Stole the American Dream” and “The Family” by Jeff Sharlet.
Like everyone else, when it takes me multiple days to finish a rant, I end up “chasing my tail.” My original point was that the economy, from my perspective, is teetering on the brink of a significant downturn. All the wild Stock Market swings are the “sign” which gets my attention. I believe the “scandal per day” approach by Trump and his sycophants will exacerbate the downturn once it hits – and, I don’t believe republicans (especially Trump) have the where-with-all to pull “we the people” out of a recession. It’s almost as if Trump has been attempting to take “we the people” back to the days of Herbert Hoover. Well, what’s the old saying? “Be careful what you wish for.” Let’s hope I’m wrong!