I’ve been saying since before Obama’s inauguration that “I WANT OBAMA TO SUCCEED………….but” – and, unfortunately, I’m still saying pretty much the same thing. However, I’m REALLY starting to feel that President Obama is – well, I really even hate to say this – empty rhetoric. I REALLY HOPE I’M WRONG. The truth will be borne out in the coming weeks as the proposed “health care reform” comes to a head. The problem with the health care reform as it’s evolving out of the different committees of Congress is that “we the people” have no idea what’s in the bill. And, I’m not sure the politicians involved know what’s in the bill, either. For example, there is a firestorm brewing over the so-called “public option” and I don’t know a single person who really knows what “public option” means. However, reports that Obama is about to abandon the “public option” is not sitting well with me, or millions of other “supporters.”

For me, “public option” means a medicare type plan which would have comparable benefits to “the plans Senators and Representatives have” and would be available as an OPTION to anyone who would choose to purchase it. People who have employee based health care would have the OPTION to transfer into the “public option” if they choose – hopefully reducing the outlay for their employer while giving them the same level of coverage. There would have to be some kind of employer mandate, and I believe it would be reasonable for the employee to pay a percentage of the premium just as we do for medicare now. I’m not sure how the Congress could set something like that up, but if they fail to do so, I agree with the house “progressive caucus” that there will be no bill. Today, I heard Nancy Pelosi say that there would be no bill coming from the house without the “public option.” (don’t you wish Pelosi would have been as firm when “impeachment was on the table?”) This morning I listened to an interview with Ron Wyden, Democratic Senator from Oregon, who pointed out that the proposed “public option” might not be even close to what people are envisioning. Wyden claimed, also, that it is unlikely for a bill with the “public option” to pass in the Senate.

So, here’s the rub for me. At this point I’m OK with the bill not making it. No one who has paid any attention at all to the debate could not understand that the Republicans are lined up against this bill unanimously (unless it’s watered down to the point that it will never pass the House in exchange for Olympia Snowe’s vote) and the so-called “Blue Dog” Democrats are not cooperating with their President. They also know that this legislation has not been President Obama’s finest hour. He made a generic proposal and left it up to Congress to write the bill and come up with the solution. I’m not sure if he miscalculated where the “Blue Dogs” were coming from, or if he’s just by nature obsessed with being a uniter and not a strong leader, but the rumors that he’s about to abandon his most ardent supporters seem valid. There’s too many signals coming from what I consider to be reliable sources indicating that President Obama is relying on advice from his “insiders” instead of taking a strong position on this legislation and giving people a clear “bottom line.” It continues to look to me as if our President is more determined to get at least one or two Republican votes on the bill than to work toward the will of his “base.” I hate to say this, but it feels to me as if President Obama is taking the support of his base for granted.

The Republicans are calling the health care legislation Obama’s “Waterloo.” That, of course, suggests to them that if they can defeat this bill they will have defeated President Obama. I don’t TOTALLY agree with that scenario, but, I can see how things could play out that way. If President Obama continues to cater to Republicans, I think it is his own party that will make this his “Waterloo.” I believe totally that most of the Republican LEADERS – unfortunately at this point in time I’m talking about: Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Tom Delay, Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, John McCain, Chuck Grassley, Glenn Beck (I can’t believe things could get to the point where I would HAVE to say that – the guy is really a WEIRD ONE), and I could go on and on – just can’t handle a black person (really half black) as Commander in Chief. Their attitude makes me want Obama to succeed more than ever. However, I’m not the only person who supported Obama in the election who is befuddled by his constant sucking up to Republicans. I DON’T UNDERSTAND IT. I think Democrats (rank and file) will be OK with Obama not getting this bill if he doesn’t “cave” to the whims of the Republicans, who won’t support him NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES!

This health care legislation is not the only place where President Obama is on “thin ice” with his base. However, the opportunity still exists for him to show some guts and take the fight to the Republicans and the conservative “Blue dogs” in his own party. DRAW THE LINE ON THE “ROBUST PUBLIC OPTION” that 72% of the American public wants. And, STOP CATERING TO REPUBLICANS! I’ve written numerous posts explaining the falacy of trying to make everyone happy – you end up making NO ONE HAPPY! Here’s what I believe President Obama is having a hard time accepting – the core of the Republican party wants him to fail – NO MATTER WHAT. The idea of him succeeding brings a harsh reality to the minds of the Limbaugh’s, Boehner’s, etc. of the potential reality of them spending generations in the minority. Actually, the way they’re going about it, if Obama does “succeed” I think the Republican party, as it’s presently constituted, could be a thing of the past (hence, a good explanation for their intense opposition – In my mind they fully understand this). I believe that if President Obama gets tough for the rest of this legislation, his “base” will rally around him – and they’ll be forgiving for some of the other potential “week-spots” which are not in the news right now – but, trust me, if this legislation fails and Obama “caves” there are several issues that could blow up in his face – from his own supporters.

Remember, we STILL HAVE 131,000 troops in Iraq – and we’re almost nine months into Obama’s promised 16 month withdrawal. I know that he modified that “promise” to 18 or 19 months, but I don’t even think that’s possible at this point. And, during the campaign he never mentioned leaving a force of 50 – 75,000 “non-combat” forces after the “deadline.” I know he’s busy, but our troops are still dying, being wounded, getting PTSD by the droves, and the same political issues that existed “pre-surge” in Iraq exist there today. As the violence increases, I believe President Obama will be listening to the military leaders who want to stay there for over a decade and be tempted to follow their advice – General Patreaus is persuasive (if you don’t believe me, read Thomas Ricks “The Gamble” – Ricks also wrote the great book on Iraq, “Fiasco,” and I believe he’s the most connected reporter in this whole “fiasco”). On top of that, when the reality of Obama’s escalation of the conflict in Afganistan sinks in to his core supporters, he’s going to need some serious understanding from his base regarding the seriousness of the conditions he inherited (which is being lost in the way he’s going about the present health care debate). The potential exists for some very unhappy Democrats in respect to Afganistan and Obama’s policies.

On close examination it gets worse. President Obama has been defending the Bush wiretapping policies in court. No one in the “main-stream” media, to my knowledge, has even asked President Obama to his face if he’s not still following the Bush wiretapping policies. Is the NSA still “data-mining” the phone calls and emails of MILLIONS OF AMERICANS? Remember, then Senator Obama INEXPLICABLY voted for the FISA bill during the campaign in a complete sellout to his supporters which was overlooked because he “promised” to “fix” the bill once in office – of course, there doesn’t seem to be any urgency to do so. President Obama has directed the Justice Department to support the “States Secrets privilege” that President Bush used to prevent information unfavorable to the administration from being admitted into evidence in court. With the continuance of both inherited conflicts along with the wiretapping and secrecy issues, I’m worried that at some point we’ll start hearing Obama referring to the “War on Terror” – just like President Bush! To me, ALL OF THIS IS ALARMING!

Then there’s the point that has already turned me off to our new President – although I still HOPE HE SUCCEEDS – it will just be without my vote or my occasional few dollars unless he somehow manages to rectify this issue. He seems to be doing everything in his power to prevent any kind of investigation of President Bush, Vice President Cheney and the other leaders in the Bush administration who committed heinous crimes. I’ve listed many of the crimes often in previous posts, but the fact Obama keeps trying to protect the Bush administration – to the detriment of our Justice system – is beyond my ability to comprehend. I realize that Eric Holder has named a special prosecutor to investigate abuses by CIA agents and private contractors who went beyond the limits created by the bogus “memos” written by John Yoo, David Addington, and Jay Bybee (now a federal judge – ughhhh!), but he went out of his way to limit the investigation to just those agents, and not the people who authorized the “enhanced interrogation” in the first place. I guarantee you that there are millions of Americans who just assumed that these investigations would take place once Obama was in office and there would be no limits as to where the evidence could “lead.” That’s because everyone who’s been following this torture issue knows that both Bush and Cheney have already admitted to authorizing waterboarding among other shameful practices. It’s almost like Bush/Cheney assumed the way to defeat terrorists was to become even worse than the terrorists. It doesn’t take a legal expert to understand that if we prosecuted “waterboarders” after WW II, and if the Geneva Conventions define waterboarding as “torture,” and “enemy combatants” were waterboarded OVER AND OVER AGAIN (one guy was waterboarded 183 times in ONE MONTH! – with NO ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE as a result – not that that would be a justification for war crimes), and both Bush and Cheney admittedly authorized it, then THEY HAVE A HUGE PROBLEM.

If President Obama caves to the Republicans on health care, then he will be the one with the huge problem – and it will be with his own supporters. Obama’s supporters are different from Bush’s. Bush could do anything and the Republican Congress and the Republican base would support him. Obama’s supporters include most Democrats and a large block of independents (like me) and many dis-affected Republicans, those who finally have had enough of the divisiveness of the Republican party. However, this is not blind loyalty. We expect Obama to be pushing the “progressive” agenda, and his pandering to Republicans is causing him to lose support among his own followers. I believe if he takes the approach that any health care bill is better than no bill, and sacrifices the centerpiece of the legislation for Olympia Snowe’s vote, President Obama will find himself fighting for political survival among his own supporters. I mentioned earlier in this post how Obama’s rhetoric is becoming hollow to me – in fact, I cant bring myself to listen to his speeches at this point in time. I DON’T WANT FLOWERY SPEECHES WITH WHIMPY ACTION – I want a President who is willing to stand tall against all the abuses of the past eight years (actually, more like 30 years) – and show some political backbone and a fighter’s spirit. If that happens, I believe Obama will succeed whether or not he gets this bill through Congress (the people will put the blame on Congress – where it belongs – IF OBAMA DOESN’T CAVE). If he does what’s been rumored and abandon the “public option” for one or two Republican votes, I believe all these other issues will “mushroom” into a “cloud” from his own party that will ensure President Obama is a one-term President. Let me sum up my thoughts for tonight: If President Obama abandons the “public option,” he will be a one term President!