I’ve pointed this out many times here: “I’m not an economist.” That always is what I’m thinking when one or more of my predictions comes true. Of course, I’m talking about the stock market and it’s recent downturn which I (kind of) predicted. I mentioned, in my experience as an observer, (I haven’t owned a stock for well over 10 years) when the market starts experiencing significant “ups and downs” (not like what’s been happening in the past two weeks) “hold on to your hats.” Meaning, when the strong moves are happening, from my experience, they will eventually head “south.” This is when national leadership is critical!
I also postulated my personal opinion the stock market appeared to me to be a “house built on sand.” Without actually knowing for sure I suggested much of what was pushing the market to record highs was the availability of money at near ZERO interest rates. I had recently read a book by Rachel Maddow titled “Blow Out” focused on the oil industry and much of the book looked at the history of a couple shale oil companies operating out of Oklahoma City which were operating on massive amounts of debt – one of them, Chesapeake Oil. Today, as the market is down over 1000 points on the DOW once again, I checked on Chesapeake Oil and its stock price was about 14 CENTS per share. Soon, likely to be “no more.”
I looked at a couple of other oil companies and their stock prices were heading “south” at significant rates, likely the result of what appears to me the Saudi’s purposefully attempting to destroy the American shale oil business by flooding the world oil market pushing the prices below what it costs to produce this shale oil. On the surface, the Saudi’s actions were the result of a dispute with the Russians over the shrinking demand for oil around the world – apparently due to the covid-19 “crisis” – but, to me, it shows the frailty of American businesses operating with too much “leverage.” For us dummies that means too much debt.
I’ve also suggested many of the traders on Wall Street are financing their trading with this almost “free” money. My guess is their thinking is they can make well more than 1.5% on their stock trades so “why not?” Well, maybe the recent tanking of the market is a good reason to answer that question “why not?” Again, I’m just guessing, but if you’re making large trades using borrowed money this drop of over 6000 points must at least make you nervous. I listen to “experts” suggest (as they have for as long as I can remember) if you’re “long” in the market you have nothing to worry about. (People like Warren Buffet are probably buying right now)
The only thing that makes sense to me is there are many people who AREN’T “long” in the market. They’re the “gamblers” who are buying and selling huge amounts of stocks on a daily basis – looking for the slightest gains to make money – sometimes MOUNTAINS of money. But, as the saying goes, “what goes up, must come down.” (Of course, I also read “The Big Short” many years ago – about the 2008 crisis – and, I’m sure there are “short sellers” out there who are very happy right now) This all is why I refer to Wall Street as nothing more than a glorified gambling casino. Yes, I know that’s the view of someone who knows virtually nothing about how the market works – but, it just appears to me, too many of the traders are not “long” in the market.
The reason I’m pointing this out is because I’ve NEVER considered Wall Street to be what should be the gauge of the health of our economy. For example, I don’t see where Wall Street is more important than Main Street. However, since the first day he was in office individual 1 has been bragging that he’s “created” the “greatest economy in the history of this country.” Well, from the standpoint of the people on “Main Street” I don’t know they think this is the “greatest economy ever.” For example, Americans are FINALLY wising up to the republican habit of giving HUGE ($ TRILLIONS) tax cuts to their donors – the so-called “top %1. Of course, that helps Wall Street, but Main Street “not so much.” (And, by the way, he didn’t create this strong economy)
I listened to Bernie Sanders today, the likely “loser” in the battle for the democratic nomination for president with Joe Biden, as he pointed out the list of questions he’s going to ask Biden in their debate this coming weekend. (With no audience because of the covid-19 scare) Sanders reminded me of why I voted for him (he’s got a good chance to win my state – Washington – once all the votes are counted) as he brought up the issues with health care, minimum wage, college and trade school debt, affordability, and accessibility, Climate Change, mass incarceration, racism, and other key issues that are important to me and many others.
Sanders correctly pointed out there’s a large segment of democratic voters whose MAIN issue is simply getting individual 1 out of office. And, as usual, they’re willing to give up on their fundamental beliefs (and, Sanders represents the closest to “New Deal” beliefs in my view), out of the FEAR of losing to individual 1. Operating in an atmosphere of FEAR, to me, very well could actually backfire. It’s certainly what has allowed America to become a country whose government is so corrupt that people from all “walks” are angry and turned off. The problem is, from my viewpoint, it’s the very FEAR which is permeating our society as I’m writing this which has resulted in this DEPLORABLE situation.
People like Vladimir Putin and the republicans who are working in concert with him (surreptitiously) are expert at fomenting misinformation in order to further the divide which is causing Americans to question their own values. However, if Mr. Sanders can get Biden to create an atmosphere of unity and come up with a plan to consider ALL the issues which are important to Senator Sanders AND his MILLIONS of supporters after defeating individual 1 I believe Biden can create a strong campaign which could include ALL of the voters who are setting records as far as turnout during the primaries and could put individual 1 out to pasture and, with him, Moscow Mitch. (There’s even a decent chance for Lindsey Graham to be defeated)
Many democrats have been saying for some time now individual 1 is a pathological LIAR and, tonight, our IMPEACHED so-called president gave an Oval Office address to the nation which was apparently supposed to calm the FEARS he’s helped create regarding covid-19. Well, as many have been reminded, while listening to individual 1, of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” – our IMPEACHED so-called president has a serious credibility problem. I checked the “futures” market today right before I left to pick up my grandson from school and take him to his Little League practice and individual 1’s address took place on my way home. Soon after I arrived home I checked the “futures” market again (It suggests where the market will open in the AM) and it was DOWN nearly 1000 MORE points.
Even individual 1’s Wall Street supporters understand our IMPEACHED so-called president is a LIAR and he has no security. Today, I watched the head doctor of the CDC in an abbreviated appearance before the House (it got called off suddenly, maybe because of what Dr. Fausti was saying) and he suggested, due to the way this has been handled (he was very diplomatic), there could be “MILLIONS” of cases in the United States before this is over. Not only do even the people of Wall Street understand individual 1 has NO credibility they’re also coming to grips with the effect of his LYING. Today, I checked Boeing shares and they had dropped over 40% at the point I checked – because airlines around the world are canceling orders by the droves.
My son works in a restaurant and, tonight, they were not busy at all. From what I’ve understood, people like my son very well could be facing layoffs because people aren’t going to be going out for dinner or lunch. Hotels are going to be losing vast amounts of money – and, remember, individual did NOT put his hotels into a trust when he took his “oath” of office and, I’m guessing he’s going to try to come up with some kind of financial relief for hotel owners – which, of course, would simply be MORE self dealing.
I keep thinking of all my Christian friends who claim individual 1 is in office by the grace of God and, I have to wonder, how are they explaining this coronavirus which, undoubtedly, is going to be the force which turns our economy into recession. I think there’s little doubt at this point in time America (and, likely, the world) will be in recession by the November election. It wouldn’t surprise me to see individual 1 start talking about putting off the election. I can only imagine what kind of reaction that will cause among “we the people” as more and more of us learn our IMPEACHED so-called president is incompetent – and, like everything else he does, he’s putting his own interests above the interests of “we the people.” From my standpoint, he can’t be gone soon enough!
I wrote recently of wanting to be a “fly on the wall” in the White House as it’s been reported individual 1 has great fears of catching covid-19 and, also, is having a personal meltdown in regard to the tanking of the stock market. Today, it was reported he was yelling insults aimed at the head of the Federal Reserve as if the Fed is the reason the market is tanking. He doesn’t seem to understand virtually EVERYTHING he does makes matters worse on Wall Street. It appears to me our IMPEACHED so-called president will be campaigning as having FINALLY done to the inheritance he got from President Obama what he did to the inheritance he got from his father. And, still his CULT will vote for him!
Final thought: Last night our IMPEACHED so-called president just confirmed what many beside myself have been concerned about should an actual crisis happen on his “watch.” I listened to the head of the World Health Organization, yesterday, as he declared the covid-19 virus to be a worldwide pandemic and he was lamenting the poor response coming from certain nations – I took it to mean, at least, the U.S. Of course, individual 1 has been making comments which contradict people involved in the battle to contain this virus from “day 1.” And, his address last night was a mitigated disaster. This morning, I was wondering how many republicans were second guessing their votes in the IMPEACHMENT trial a few weeks ago.
I don’t think very many people will be surprised to see individual 1 attempt to implement a plan aimed at his own properties (some are suggesting the reason flights from the UK and Ireland were not part of his “ban” announced last night to be because of his golf courses in those countries) as he’s proven to be all about himself FIRST and America next. I pointed out what the stock futures suggested as his address was happening and, sure enough, the markets opened to another “circuit breaker” this AM. Shortly thereafter the “Fed” inserted (from one account) over $1 TRILLION into the market in an attempt to mitigate the downward pressure (remember, individual 1 is BLAMING the head of the “Fed” for the downturn) and the DOW temporarily jumped about a 1000 points – only, to, by the time I’m writing this (around 3 EST) it’s back down around -2000 points for the day. The confidence factor appears to be low.
And, I’ll finish by pointing out what I’ve heard about attempts by the House to support those who may be losing their jobs or may not have access to affordable health care. I heard Nancy Pelosi (and other democrats) are negotiating with a team of republicans including the Treasury Secretary a “stimulus” plan which, from what I’ve heard, the Treasury Secretary is balking at because he believes it is an “entitlement.” This is typical republican response in any situation which involves helping those at the “bottom.” Of course, these objections are coming on the same day the Fed, as I just pointed out, has pumped over a TRILLION dollars into Wall Street. To me, this says it all and SHOULD get the attention of even members of individual 1’s CULT.
I have to say, this coronavirus crisis has made the issues important to Bernie Sanders and his supporters “as clear as a bell.” Our young people understand the issues with access to affordable health care, student loan debt, the expense of college education or trade schools, the Climate Crisis (probably should be #1 on this list), etc. better than most – because it affects them MORE than the rest of us. This present crisis just affirms what many of us have been saying for some time about how CORRUPT our government has become and how its focus is in the wrong direction. If this crisis doesn’t make these things clear I’m not sure what will! (Well, with the climate crisis maybe we need a city like Miami or Los Angeles under water to get people’s attention)